WASHINGTON — Jake Johnson, a high school math teacher who has never held political office, has shaken the political dynamics in southern Minnesota and attracted a last-minute infusion of $2.2 million of help from the Democratic Party.
The Republican who represents the area in Congress, Rep. Brad Finstad, is suddenly playing defense. A political action committee linked to President Donald Trump rushed to his aid with its own $1.2 million ad buy.
The largely rural 1st Congressional District was not expected to be in play this year. But it is and the race for its seat has attracted millions of dollars in outside spending.
Johnson, 43, remains an underdog. Finstad, who has represented the 1st District since 2022, is favored to win reelection in a district once rated “Solid Republican” and now considered “Lean Republican” by the Cook Political Report.
The infusion of nearly $1.2 million in attack ads aimed at Johnson by the No Going Back PAC, which is linked to Trump, is an effort by a jittery Republican Party to make sure the 1st District remains in the GOP column.
There are also other GOP groups attacking Johnson.
The Thank You for Your Attention to This Matter PAC has spent about $1.2 million and the Defending Main Street PAC has spent about $465,000.
Spending money to secure a district Trump won by 12.5 points in 2024 is an indication of the advantage Democratic candidates have in this midterm election because of Trump’s unpopularity and concerns about the economy.
“What’s happening is that Democrats are putting Republicans on the defensive all across the nation,” said Hamline University political science professor David Schultz.
Yet Republican spending on the 1st District race is also a reflection of the success of a political novice’s campaign.
“Republicans know that Finstad is not going to win this race by 17 points like he did two years ago,” said Steven Schier, a political science professor emeritus at Carleton College. “The question is, ‘How close is it, and is it too close for comfort?’ The money suggests that it is too close for comfort.”
Johnson’s campaign prowess has attracted outside help with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ House Majority PAC coming into the state with a $2.2 million ad buy a week before the Nov. 3 election.
“There’s so much money sloshing around,” Schier said. “It doesn’t surprise me that a district like this is getting an infusion.”
And the Your Community PAC, a super PAC funded by a variety of Democratic groups that don’t fully disclose their donors, has spent about $2.5 million supporting Johnson and against Finstad.
The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFCME) has spent about $500,000 helping Johnson. And the League of Conservation Voters PAC has spent about $240,000.
Most of the money spent by outside groups on behalf of Johnson has been spent on digital ads, paid canvassing and flyers, but it has also paid for TV ads, too.
Third parties involved in a congressional race are barred from coordinating with candidate campaigns. But a quick look at a campaign web site would allow anyone to determine a candidate’s key issues.
Finstad’s campaign, and the independent groups supporting him, have attempted to tie Johnson to fraud in Minnesota’s social service programs.
Finstad’s campaign even ran an ad that replaced a businesswoman posing in a photo with Johnson with an image of Gov. Tim Walz in an attempt to link Johnson with a governor who to many, rightly or wrongly, has become the face of fraud in the state.
“I could not believe it,” Johnson said. “The photo they took (for the ad) was actually me meeting with a small businessperson and veteran who was hurt by Trump’s tariffs.”
Finstad, 50, on Tuesday denied the image was AI altered. He called it a distraction from Johnson’s ties to Walz.
“My opponent wholeheartedly accepted money from him, bragged about endorsing him, and bragged about wanting to campaign with him, and now he can’t run fast enough away from him,” he said. “But the fact is, I am running against my opponent and Tim Walz.”
Johnson has hit Finstad hard on the lawmaker’s continuing support of Trump’s tariffs, which has resulted in lost foreign markets and higher input costs for the district’s farmers.
But, unlike other Democrats, Johnson has been careful to avoid attacking Trump. “I don’t think this campaign is about Donald Trump,” Johnson said. “This campaign is about Brad Finstad and Jake Johnson.”
Johnson has campaigned as a centrist and outsider and has called out both parties.
In an ad titled “Farmland,” he drives a dented minivan and says “both parties couldn’t care less about corruption.”
“One of the biggest mistakes both parties have made is leaving people behind,” Johnson said.
He has been endorsed by the Blue Dog Coalition — which Johnson hopes to join if he is elected — a group of fiscally conservative Democrats who support a strong defense and shrinking the federal deficit.
And he said he has taken a page from Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who is running for governor and has always visited every Minnesota county every year, by holding town halls in the district’s 21 counties.
Johnson is among a group of Democratic challengers who tout a working-class or middle-class background.
He grew up in Stewartville with 10 siblings and says his father collected garbage and his mom went door-to-door reading meters.
The family often needed the help of their church and neighbors and the support of government programs. He has called himself “a SNAP (food stamp) kid,” and said his family received their health care through Medicaid.
Johnson’s campaign and ability to raise campaign cash has caught the attention of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). It has also attracted the help of former Secretary of State and former Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg, who will stump with Johnson at a Vikings watch party in Rochester on Sunday.
While Johnson has gained traction against Finstad, Schultz said it would be a tremendous upset if he wins the seat on Election Day next Tuesday.
“It’s possible that Democrats could pick up that seat,” Schultz said. “But I’m not thinking it’s likely.”
Why? Because the district, which runs along Minnesota’s border with Iowa, is rural, older and more conservative, Schultz said, “and that’s not the base of the Democratic Party.”
Schultz also said Finstad is not seen as a “Trump right-hand man,” though the lawmaker supports the president on various issues besides the global tariffs, including the relentless blaming of state Democrats for fraud.
“And they like him down there,” Schultz said of Finstad.
If Johnson does pull off an upset, Schier suspects it would come as part of a big, perhaps even unprecedented, “blue” wave across the country. And at the very least, Johnson’s campaign has drawn money out of the Republican war chest.
“Anytime you have to spend on a race that you expected to win, it’s money that could’ve been spent elsewhere in closer contests,” Schier said. “Where the late money goes is very important in determining how competitive a race is.”
While Johnson closes in on him on the campaign trail this week, Finstad was at work as a congressman Tuesday. He visited the Faribault Woolen Mill for a tour and meeting with business leaders.
He acknowledged the day’s focus, manufacturing permitting reform, was not a politically sexy topic in the days before the election. But it gave manufacturing leaders a stage to praise his support for the industry.
Jay Timmons, president and CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, credited Finstad with supporting Trump’s “big beautiful bill,” which he called the most pro-manufacturing legislation of his lifetime.
Trump’s tariff policies drew less enthusiasm around the manufacturing roundtable. Finstad told them he’s been hammering home the importance of certainty in trade and tariff policies to the Trump administration.
“If the lever is pulled strategically, a little bit more strategically, it will be helpful,” he said.
Some Republicans have joined Democrats to attempt to rein in Trump’s tariff policies. Finstad hasn’t joined his colleagues in the bipartisan effort.
He said the move would only add to the uncertainty. Trump’s policies are helping undo trade deficits in agriculture, and he said a longer-term view on tariffs is warranted.
Attack ads against Finstad have centered around his more supportive stance on data centers than Johnson. In contrast, Johnson has called for a moratorium on hyperscale developments, tapping into populist anger over proposals in Faribault and Pine Island.
Noah Embretson, an early voter in Faribault, said he supports Johnson in the race in part because of the data center issue. “Finstad seems to be supporting the data centers, whereas his opponent doesn’t,” the rural Faribault resident said.
But another voter, Joe Purfeerst, cast a ballot for Finstad and other Republicans. His top issue was lowering taxes, and he looked for candidates who would back up Trump’s policies.
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